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Research within the College of Business & Economics is concerned with the advancement of knowledge in its disciplines, in both theoretical and applied areas, and covers a wide range of topics. College members regularly contribute to leading academic and professional journals, and publish books, monographs and working papers. Members of College also provide specialist advice to business, the Federal Government and its instrumentalities, and play an active role in professional bodies.
This area contains a selection of research projects currently being undertaken by staff at the College of Business & Economics.
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modeling
Prof. T.J. O’Neill; Prof. R.D. Terrell; Prof. A.H. Welsh; Prof. G.S. Monroe; Dr J. Penm
ARC Linkage Project (LP0989811)
2009-2011
The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through electing optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.
Australia and the European Union: A study of a changing trade and business relationship
Prof. SH Bronitt; Mr D Kenyon; Dr PJ van der Eng; Prof FJ Ravenhill; Dr LE Botterill; Prof CC Findlay; Ms AM McNaughton; Mr HG Rammal; Prof A Capling
ARC Linkage Project (LP0990000)
2009-2011
The project deepens understanding of the evolution of Australia-EU bilateral relations, and the EU's significant contribution to the Australian economy. It informs public debate and official dialogues in Australia and Europe about the ways in which the relationship may be fostered in future. Project findings contribute an understanding of the common ground and mutual support of Australia and the EU in international organisations such as WTO, and the further development of Australian and EU policies that will benefit bilateral trade and investment in both Australia and the EU. The research results will inform Australian government agencies in identifying policy options for further constructive relationships between Australia and the EU.
Adoption and Effective Use of Information Communication Technologies in Indigenous Communities in Australia
Mr. P.J. Radoll; Prof. K.R. Jacobs; Dr. W.D. Fernandez; Dr B.H. Hunter; Prof. M. Dodson
ARC Discovery Indigenous (DI0989056)
2009-2010
This project on Indigenous use of the internet aims to identify the reasons why Indigenous Australians are 69% less likely to access the Internet than their non-Indigenous counterparts as demonstrated in the last census. This research will assist in innovative policy development including the creation of a culturally-sensitive model to assist Indigenous communities to raise their use of computers and the internet. Ultimately the aim of the research is to provide mechanisms to engage Indigenous people with current technology to advance health, education and housing outcomes in their communities.
Higher order moment contagion testing: implications of the US subprime mortgage crisis for Australia
Dr. R.A. Fry; Prof. V.L. Martin; Dr L.C. Tang
ARC Discovery (DP0985783)
2009-2011
Even though crises are usually short lived, the long term implications of changes in asset values may be profound, particularly for superannuation assets. Implications of financial crises are also profound for institutions such as the RBA who change policy to achieve domestic objectives. The understanding of how internationally based financial crises affect Australia is important particularly when domestic inflationary pressures would appear to precipitate the need for the RBA to take the opposite policy stance to that prevalent of central banks internationally. This proposal highlights these relationships to provide insights into portfolio allocation decisions and provides information to facilitate well founded decisions by policy makers.
Climate Change Projections and Policy Design Under Uncertainty
Prof. W.J. McKibbin; Dr A. Stegman
ARC Discovery (DP0988281)
2009-2011
The issue of climate change and policy responses is one of the most important questions facing the world today. This research develops a global framework for understanding the many complexities surrounding this issue, for undertaking projections of emissions, for evaluating alternative policy proposals and for developing new policies. In particular it will provide a framework for undertaking alternative scenarios about future economic growth and carbon emissions and attempt to quantify uncertainties. It will also focus on major developing countries such as China and India which will be critical in the future evolution of world economic activity and greenhouse emissions.
Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms
Dr. G. Athanasopoulos; Prof. D.S. Poskitt; Prof. F. Vahid; Dr T.C. Kam
ARC Discovery (DP0984399)
2009-2012
Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The outcome of this project will be immediately useful for macroeconomic policy makers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasury, and for industry bodies such as Tourism Australia.
Air pollution: do modern statistical model selection techniques make the silent killer speak too loud?
Prof MA Martin; Dr S Roberts
ARC Discovery Project (DP0878988)
2008-2010
Air pollution is estimated to cause 2400 deaths annually in Australia with an associated cost to the community of $17.2 billion. The outcomes of this project will enable an improved understanding of the association between air pollution and mortality in Australia, thereby allowing government, public health authorities, and regulatory agencies to implement better air pollution standards and provide more informed advice to the public on the necessity of avoiding exposure to air pollutants. These two outcomes are particularly important given Australia's ageing population and the fact that the elderly are among those most susceptible to harm from air pollution exposure.
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates
Prof R Tyers; Prof S Dowrick; Prof HM Anderson; Dr JE Golley
ARC Discovery Project (DP0879094)
2008-2010
Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.
Expenditure needs and drawdown of retirement savings during later life: how important are demographic factors and financial resources?
Prof TJ O’Neill, Prof PF McDonald, Dr MA Martin, Dr J Penm, Dr JB Temple, Dr S Roberts, Mr TS Higgins
ARC Linkage Project (LP0776784)
Collaborating/Partner Organisation: Rice Warner Actuaries and AMP
2007 - 2010
Projections of expenditure patterns in retirement which allow for population heterogeneity will provide individuals with a better appreciation of their income needs and their savings requirements for a comfortable retirement. It will also enable financial institutions to develop products which better target retirees’ needs over the course of retirement, and in addition it will enable improved assessment of aspects of Government income support policy. Specifically, understanding the complex interactions between private and public pensions, and concession card receipt upon expenditure behaviour, will enable more accurate costings of the public support of elderly families as Australia’s population ages.
The role of corporate governance mechanisms in maximising the performance of listed Australian corporations.
Dr KD Walsh, Dr EL Welch; Prof T Smith
ARC Linkage Grant (LP0775195)
2007 - 2009
Collaborating/Partner Organisation: Barclays Global Investors
The recent spate of corporate collapses and scandals highlights the need for an ongoing commitment to the development, implementation and maintenance of strong systems of governance within Australian corporations. This commitment necessitates an understanding of which suite of governance mechanisms are most effective in positively impacting upon corporate performance rather than just the performance impact of a particular mechanism in isolation. To date, research facilitating such an understanding is all but non-existent. However, our study will yield this much-needed evidence and, therefore, provide the foundations for ongoing corporate governance reform on the part of regulators and practitioners alike.
An international evaluation of work-family balance: validation of the work-family balance measure and theoretical model.
Dr PA Brough, Dr T Kalliath, Prof MP O’Driscoll, Prof S Aryee, Prof O Siu
ARC Discovery Project (DP0770109)
2007 - 2009
Work-family imbalance costs Australia $8 billion per annum, via staff absenteeism, turnover, and health costs. By employing two Australian and three international experts, this project will investigate the long-term process of work-family balance, identify effective employment policies, and produce a new balance measure for use by industry and government. This will lead to improved health, personal satisfaction and employment choices for working Australian, and hence higher productivity for industry. The research addresses the second national research priority: promoting and maintaining good health. The consequential contributions to knowledge will directly benefit Australia’s regard within the global academic community.
Superannuation funds: ensuring the financial health of Australians in retirement.
Prof P Gray, Dr KL Benson, Dr BR Oliver, Dr MR Hutchinson, Dr K Alpert
ARC Discovery Project (DP0773662)
2007 - 2009
Superannuation is relevant to all Australians, providing a foundation for their lifestyle in retirement. The protection and enhancement of superannuation savings have been high priorities of both government and regulatory agencies. Recent legislative changes include mandated choice of superannuation fund and increased disclosure requirements. Regulators have also flagged the need for increased corporate governance among superannuation funds. This project assesses the impact of these developments through an assessment of competition, performance and accountability within the superannuation industry. Monitoring the industry in this way will strongly contribute to the financial and economic health of Australians in retirement.
Complexity, risk management and dynamic portfolio selection in investment management using advances in evolutionary parallel-computing artificial intelligence.
Prof TJ Brailsford, Prof RD Terrell, Prof TJ O’Neill, Prof T Smith Prof A Chen, Dr J Penm
ARC Discovery Project (DP0770081)
2007 - 2009
With over $1 trillion of investors’ monies in the hands of fund managers, the health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on the investment decisions of these managers. However, the majority of the funds are invested in risky assets with histories of volatile price movements about which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centered in neural networks that allow for learning over time to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved decision-making in respect of risk management and asset allocation.
The key strategies in firms’ realization of value from ICT: a transformational model of ICT value generation.
Prof SD Gregor, Dr WD Fernandez, Dr MA Martin, Dr J Ng, Dr S Stern
ARC Discovery Project (DP0664255)
2006 - 2008
Studies indicate that information and communication technologies (ICT) have contributed significantly to Australia’s productivity gains over the last decade. It is not well understood, however, why some firms and some industries have been able to benefit significantly more from ICT use than others. This study will show the strategies and practices that are used by the firms that gain maximum benefit from ICT - the ‘ICT winners’. The lessons learned will allow other firms to gain further benefits from ICT, potentially leading overall to further economic gains by industries and the nation.
Empirical and theoretical coherence of macro econometric models.
Dr RA Fry, Prof WJ McKibbin, Dr MH Dungey
ARC Discovery Project (DP0664024)
2006 - 2008
Variants of the G-Cubed models are used by researchers, governments and international institutions for policy analysis. The need for policy makers to have models with substantial structural details and a strong theoretical base is paramount for transparency and accountability. The development of simple SVAR models which capture these theoretical underpinnings will provide Australian policy makers with an effective tool for economic analysis. It will also provide powerful tools that enable forecasting and detailed policy analysis within the same broad conceptual framework. The emphasis is on international and financial market linkages which encompass key issues facing the Australian economy.
The consistency of price regulation of infrastructure businesses across Australian jurisdictions.
Prof F Menezes, Dr RV Breunig
ARC Discovery Project (DP0663768)
2006 - 2008
The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy should be consistent across jurisdictions and industries. This project would offer policy and regulatory institutions quantitative analysis of the consistency of regulatory decisions across Australia. This research will develop a new database that will maintain and supply details on regulatory decisions across jurisdictions and industries. This project will enable the new Australian Centre of Regulatory Economics (ACORE) to supply independent database and quantitative analysis from an open, fully documented, scholarly environment to Australia’s policy and regulatory agencies and its regulated firms.
Investment approaches and applications in financial markets: evolutionary kernel based subset time-series using semi-parametric approaches.
Prof PG Hall, Prof RD Terrell, Prof TJ O’Neill, Dr J Penm
ARC Linkage Grant (LP0562008)
Collaborating/Partner organisations: Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
2005 - 2008
The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modelling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. Thee project will make three important applications of this modelling in financial markets: a)benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilizing deflation of inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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